Trends you’ll want to avoid when betting the Super Bowl

The Big Game

TAMPA, Fla. (COVERS) — Every year, the Big Game attracts billions of betting bucks—and not all of those dollars are wagered sensibly. There have been plenty of trends mentioned ahead of this year’s NFL championship game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs, and we’re here to present six that you can not only safely ignore, but openly and gleefully mock those who don’t.

Here, without further ado, are the WORST Super Bowl trends making the rounds in 2021:

White Unis, Baby!

If you haven’t heard this little nugget yet, you’re lucky. And if you have, we can only hope you didn’t give it a second thought. Teams wearing white uniforms have won 13 of the previous 16 Super Bowls—and that has made some Tampa Bay fans excited, as the Buccaneers will wear whites in the Big Game.

There’s absolutely no rhyme or reason for this trend, but that won’t stop some people from putting money on it—and saying “Told ya!” if the Bucs do go on to win.

Heads Will Roll

Ah, the coin flip. Countless millions of dollars are spent on this activity every Super Bowl, with the odds the same as they ever were: -105 for heads and -105 for tails. There is literally no coin flip-related trend worth pursuing and yet, you’ll see people make their coin-flip wager on the basis of Heads having rode a bit of a hot streak, coming through in nine of the previous 15 Super Bowls. But whether you’re a “ride the streak!” bettor, or a “tails are due” wagerer, the simple fact remains (and it’s backed by basic finite math): the result of the Super Bowl coin flip is exactly that—a coin flip. Don’t overthink this one.

Fab In February

On the flip side, what is it about NFC teams refusing to stay competitive once the calendar flips to Feb. 1? Or perhaps this has more to do with the fact that long-time AFC-based assassin Tom Brady victimized the conference at every opportunity (before deciding to flip sides prior to this season). Whatever the case, the AFC has been a far superior play in Super Bowls played in the month of February, having gone 12-6 SU. That includes the Chiefs’ 31-20 win over San Francisco at last year’s Super Bowl in Miami. So do you roll with Brady (who is 6-3 in February), or with the overall AFC trend? Good luck with that!

NFC + TB = ATS W

This might look like just a bunch of letters, but there’s a message here, people! And it’s this: The NFC team has been very kind to bettors in recent Super Bowl games in Tampa, having covered in each of the previous three games played there.

The Arizona Cardinals pulled it off in the most recent occurrence, dropping a 27-23 decision to the Pittsburgh Steelers at Super Bowl XLIII in 2009. So to recap: you have Tom Brady, playing in his home stadium, at a time when the NFC has dominated ATS in Tampa. And you know that people will continue to trumpet this irrelevant trend if the Buccaneers prevail.

3 (Or 4) Is The Real Magic Number

Certain Super Bowl prop bets tend to bring a little more of a celebratory response when they hit—and the exact margin of victory (or even a win in a winning margin band) is near the top of that list.

So don’t be surprised to see some enterprising bettors take a shot on one of the most critical magic numbers in football: 3. That’s where the current betting line sits, and it’s tied (with 4) for the most common margin of victory in Super Bowl history (with each happening six times).

Still, it has happened just six times over the first 54 editions of the Super Bowl—and in fact, there have been more games decided by double digits (33) than by nine or fewer points (21).

W-L Records Are For Losers

Imagine being the superior regular-season team, then losing in the Super Bowl to the team with the worse record. It happens a lot more than you might think.

A lot more, in fact.

Over the past 15 Super Bowl matchups, the team with the better regular-season mark has won twice: Super Bowl XLIII, when the 10-6 Pittsburgh Steelers held off the 9-7 Arizona Cardinals (a game we referenced earlier), and Super Bowl LI, when the 14-2 New England Patriots defeated the 11-5 Atlanta Falcons (also known as “28-3!”)

So fade those Chiefs, right? You might decide to do so, but please don’t let this trend be the reason.

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